Connelly Ranks 29 CFP Contenders After Week 9 as Miami Leads at 98.3%
Updated
Updated · ESPN · Nov 1
Connelly Ranks 29 CFP Contenders After Week 9 as Miami Leads at 98.3%
3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Nov 1
Summary
Miami tops Connelly’s post-Week 9 playoff tiers at 98.3% average CFP odds, ahead of a second tier of Indiana, Notre Dame, Utah and Georgia all clustered between 84.7% and 89.2%.
Week 9 tightened the race rather than reshuffling it: Miami, Indiana and BYU survived close calls, while USC’s upset of injury-hit Ohio State was the only major underdog breakthrough against the top teams.
Ohio State looks especially vulnerable at 6-2 and 68.6% after losing quarterback Julian Sayin and falling to USC, while unbeaten UCLA and surging Wake Forest strengthened their cases in the same tier.
A seven-team Tier 4 led by Texas Tech, BYU, Alabama and Texas could produce about three bids, with BYU’s win over Notre Dame giving it what Connelly sees as the strongest cushion among that group.
Tuesday’s first CFP rankings could test how much schedule strength helps the SEC: Connelly’s 80/20 formula puts six 6-2 SEC teams in the top 16, even above several better-record teams from other leagues.