Democrats Hold 5- to 6-Point Senate Edges in Kansas and Ohio as 4-Seat Majority Fight Tightens
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 3
Democrats Hold 5- to 6-Point Senate Edges in Kansas and Ohio as 4-Seat Majority Fight Tightens
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 3
Summary
Final polls show Democrats narrowly ahead in two red-state Senate battlegrounds: Sherrod Brown leads by 6 points in the last Times/Siena Ohio survey, while Adam Hamilton leads by 5 in Kansas.
Those advantages remain fragile because most other surveys put both races within the margin of error, and Brown was overestimated by about 2 points in 2024 and 5 points in 2018.
Kansas has shifted most sharply in late polling: after Roger Marshall led early, Hamilton has led or tied in all but one public survey since September, though one Washington Post poll showing a 9-point lead drew methodological caution.
The two contests matter outsizedly because Democrats need to flip 4 Republican-held seats and defend all of their own to win the Senate, with Ohio and Kansas now part of an expanded battlefield in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.