NYT Forecast Gives Democrats 78% Senate and 93% House Control Chances in 2026
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 3
NYT Forecast Gives Democrats 78% Senate and 93% House Control Chances in 2026
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 3
Summary
The New York Times live forecast now puts Democrats at a 78% chance to control the Senate and a 93% chance to win the House as vote reporting continues.
113 counties and 90 near-complete townships are feeding the model, which blends incoming results with pre-election polls, past election returns and demographic data.
In the Senate, Democrats are favored in key races including South Carolina at 89%, Michigan at 78% and Texas at 69%, while Iowa is rated even and Nebraska leans Republican at 60%.
House control looks firmer: the forecast shows Republicans at 197 seats, with a projected range of 164 to 224, implying Democrats are strongly positioned to secure a majority.