Pollsters Undercounted Democrats by 2 Points as Party Seized House and Senate
Updated
Updated · Fox News · Nov 4
Pollsters Undercounted Democrats by 2 Points as Party Seized House and Senate
3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Nov 4
Summary
Democrats won back House and Senate majorities in a blue-wave midterm that pollsters say was stronger than surveys captured.
A couple of points in underestimated Democratic vote share appears to explain much of the miss, according to Fox News pollster Daron Shaw and other survey veterans.
Texas underscored the gap: James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton in a Senate race that data had shown shifting blue, though the scale of the move surprised analysts.
The miss cut against a yearslong Republican claim that polls mainly undercount MAGA voters, with pollsters saying 2025 New Jersey and Virginia governor races also understated Democratic margins.