Dow Futures Edge Up as S&P 500 and Nasdaq Slip After Oil Plunge

Q: Why did a massive earnings beat trigger an unexpected after-hours selloff for a major travel giant?

Expedia’s after-hours selloff was driven less by its headline beat than by its outlook. The company posted strong third-quarter results, with adjusted EPS of $9.39 and revenue of $4.94 billion, both above Wall Street estimates. But investors focused on weaker-than-hoped fourth-quarter guidance. Expedia said holiday-quarter revenue would be $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, with the midpoint roughly at or slightly below analyst expectations. More importantly, its fourth-quarter EBITDA outlook of about $855 million came in below consensus near $917 million in some estimates. That suggested profit growth could slow even after a strong quarter. Investors were also weighing a broader message in management’s commentary: travel demand remained resilient, but the company pointed to headwinds including geopolitical tensions and softer trends in some international corridors. Reuters reported management cited the Middle East conflict, unrest in parts of Europe, and election-related caution as factors moderating the fourth-quarter view. The stock’s prior run-up likely amplified the reaction. When a company has rallied and expectations are high, even a large earnings beat can be overshadowed by guidance that implies deceleration. In Expedia’s case, the market appeared to judge that the quarter was strong, but not strong enough to justify a more upbeat near-term outlook.

Q: Will a revolutionary multi-cancer blood test secure FDA approval despite missing a crucial clinical trial endpoint?

Probably yes, but not with certainty. GRAIL’s Galleri test missed a major bar in the NHS-Galleri trial: it did not meet the primary endpoint of reducing stage III and IV cancer diagnoses. That is a real weakness, because regulators and clinicians ultimately want proof that screening changes outcomes, not just that it finds more cancers. Even so, the test still has a credible path to FDA approval because the agency is weighing a broader benefit-risk package, not only that one endpoint. An FDA advisory panel voted in favor of approval in September, backing Galleri’s safety unanimously, its effectiveness by 6-4, and its overall benefit-risk profile by 7-2 with one abstention. The FDA often follows advisory committee recommendations, though it is not required to. The supporting evidence is meaningful. In PATHFINDER 2, Galleri showed high specificity of about 99.6%, a positive predictive value around 60%, and cancer signal origin accuracy above 91%, while serious study-related harms were not reported. The NHS-Galleri data also showed the test can detect cancers at scale with a low false-positive rate, even if sensitivity for all cancers was modest and the primary endpoint was missed. The likely outcome is a narrow or carefully labeled approval, if it comes, with strong warnings that Galleri is an add-on to standard screening, not a replacement, and that a negative result does not rule out cancer. The FDA decision is expected by early 2027.

3 articles · Updated · Investor's Business Daily · Nov 5

Dow Jones futures rose slightly overnight, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures turned lower after Wednesday’s broad market rally.
Wednesday’s surge followed Democrats’ sweeping election victory and a sharp drop in oil prices, with the Dow posting its best day since April.
Late earnings from Expedia, Arm Holdings, Grail, ELF Beauty and Paycom Software helped drive the split tone in after-hours trading, especially across tech-linked names.
The mixed futures signal suggests investors are weighing whether the election-and-oil-fueled rally can broaden beyond the Dow into the wider market.