Fidelity, Vanguard Cut US Stock Return Outlooks to 4.8%-6.8% as 10% Era Fades
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Nov 8
Fidelity, Vanguard Cut US Stock Return Outlooks to 4.8%-6.8% as 10% Era Fades
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Nov 8
Summary
Vanguard now sees U.S. stocks returning 4.8%-6.8% annually over the next 10 years, while Fidelity projects 5.8% annual returns over 20 years—well below the market’s long-run norm.
The weaker outlooks reflect higher starting valuations, lower growth potential and what both firms describe as frothy market conditions, rather than a short-term recession call.
That marks a sharp break from the S&P 500’s roughly 10% average annual return since 1957, a benchmark many retirement plans have long used.
For retirees and long-term savers, the forecasts suggest dialing back return assumptions and stress-testing plans against a lower-growth market backdrop.