4 Independent Senate Candidates Lose in Red States as 2026 Leftward Swing Bypasses Them
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 9
4 Independent Senate Candidates Lose in Red States as 2026 Leftward Swing Bypasses Them
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 9
Summary
Four Democratic-backed independent Senate candidates lost in deep-red states, failing to meaningfully run ahead of the party despite a broader 2026 shift toward Democrats.
Dan Osborn, seen as the strongest contender, improved by less than 1 point from his 2024 Nebraska race and underperformed polls even as Democrats beat expectations in other competitive Senate contests.
Osborn and Idaho's Todd Achilles outperformed their states' gubernatorial Democrats by just under 2 points, while South Dakota's Brian Bengs did better by 6 points; Achilles still trailed his state's Democratic attorney general candidate.
The weak overperformance contrasted with earlier cycles: Osborn ran 14 points ahead of Kamala Harris's 2024 Nebraska margin, and Evan McMullin beat Utah House Democrats' average by 20 points in 2022.
That pattern mattered because Nebraska's average House vote shifted 9 points left from 2024 to 2026, while Democrats won Senate races in Kansas and Iowa by outperforming Harris's 2024 margins by 21 and 17 points.