China's October Exports Seen Jumping 33.5% as AI Boom and EU Curbs Spur Shipments
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Nov 9
China's October Exports Seen Jumping 33.5% as AI Boom and EU Curbs Spur Shipments
2 articles · Updated · Reuters · Nov 9
Summary
$125.8 billion is the median forecast for China's October trade surplus, with exports expected to rise 33.5% from a year earlier when data is released Tuesday.
AI infrastructure spending has powered outbound shipments all year, while exporters are also expected to front-load hybrid-vehicle sales before agreed EU limits take effect.
Imports are forecast to climb 32%, extending September's 31.0% gain, but the surplus would still push China's 2026 trade gap above $1 trillion in the first 10 months.
That export strength is helping keep GDP on track for the government's 4.5%-5% target even as domestic demand stays weak, with September retail sales up just 1.1%.
October factory surveys showed new orders and new export orders contracting, raising questions over how long the AI-led export surge can offset softness at home.