BLS Omits October CPI Year-Over-Year Rate After 2025 Shutdown Halted 6 Weeks of Data
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 10
BLS Omits October CPI Year-Over-Year Rate After 2025 Shutdown Halted 6 Weeks of Data
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 10
Summary
Tuesday’s CPI report will show October prices rose an expected 0.3% from September, but it will not include the widely watched 12-month inflation rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot calculate that year-over-year figure because the 2025 government shutdown—from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12—stopped price collection and left no October 2025 index.
Economists are expected to estimate the missing annual rate by averaging September and November price levels, though that method may slightly overstate inflation because November 2025 was artificially depressed by the data gap.
The omission comes just before the Fed’s Dec. 8-9 meeting, the last before another CPI release, with policymakers already signaling a likely rate increase as inflation remains above target.