Asteroid 1998 KY26 Runs Too Warm for Ice at 212 Kelvin, Undercutting Dark Comet Theory
Updated
Updated · ScienceAlert · Nov 8
Asteroid 1998 KY26 Runs Too Warm for Ice at 212 Kelvin, Undercutting Dark Comet Theory
3 articles · Updated · ScienceAlert · Nov 8
Summary
Georgia Tech researchers found 1998 KY26’s coldest regions average at least 212 Kelvin, well above the roughly 145 Kelvin needed for buried water ice to survive.
That temperature model weakens the leading “dark comet” explanation for the 11-meter asteroid’s odd acceleration, because invisible outgassing would require ice that should already have vanished.
Even if water ice made up 1% of KY26’s mass, the study estimates it would disappear in just over 2,000 years; if it drove the acceleration, it would be exhausted in 62 years.
KY26 still shows unusual acceleration perpendicular to its orbit and spins once every 5.35 minutes, leaving solar radiation pressure as a stronger remaining explanation.
Hayabusa2 is due to rendezvous with KY26 in July 2031, offering a direct test of what is pushing the asteroid off its expected path.