Updated
Updated · Reuters · Nov 11
Dollar Holds Near 2-Week High as 91.9% Fed Hike Odds Follow Hotter CPI
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Nov 11

Dollar Holds Near 2-Week High as 91.9% Fed Hike Odds Follow Hotter CPI

3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Nov 11

Summary

  • The dollar index held at 102.22 in early Asian trade after jumping 0.5% overnight, staying near its highest level since Oct. 28.
  • October US consumer prices rose more than expected, and hawkish Fed officials warned inflation risks remain, pushing traders to fully rule out a December pause.
  • Fed funds futures now show a 91.9% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Dec. 9, up from 84% a day earlier, with a 9.1% chance of a larger 50-basis-point move.
  • US 10-year Treasury yields climbed 13.8 basis points to 4.996%, while the euro and sterling were flat and the yen held around 158.715 per dollar.
  • Markets are now debating not just one more hike but how restrictive US policy may ultimately become, a shift with broader implications for risk assets.

Insights

With inflation stubbornly high and yields crossing 5%, will the Fed's aggressive December hike finally break the resilient US economy?
Will the surging US dollar and multi-decade high Treasury yields trigger a global currency crisis, or is this the new normal?
As AI-driven investments keep the economy hot, can the Fed realistically achieve its 2% inflation target without crushing risk assets?