AARP Says Social Security Lost $10.8 Trillion, Cutting Solvency by 25 Years
Updated
Updated · Quartz · Nov 11
AARP Says Social Security Lost $10.8 Trillion, Cutting Solvency by 25 Years
3 articles · Updated · Quartz · Nov 11
Summary
AARP said shifting income patterns stripped 25 years from Social Security’s solvency outlook, arguing the program would have remained able to pay full scheduled benefits through 2059 instead of exhausting its combined trust fund in 2034.
The group traced the shortfall to a shrinking tax base: the share of GDP subject to payroll tax fell to 34% in 2025 from 41% in 1984, while more income flowed to wages above the taxable cap and to profits and investment returns.
Labor income’s share of GDP also slid to 57% in 2023 from 65% in 1970, and AARP said more business owners are using S corporations to classify income as profits that avoid Social Security payroll taxes.
The report stops short of endorsing a fix but points to proposals to raise or scrap the wage cap—$184,500 in 2026 and $192,300 in 2027—and to tax some investment income, saying lower- and middle-income taxpayers would be spared.
AARP said the findings weaken arguments for raising the retirement age or cutting benefits, framing Social Security’s financing problem as a revenue mismatch caused by economic change and congressional inaction.