Updated
Updated · Fox News · Nov 14
Kalshi’s 2028 Election Markets Draw $500 Million as Ossoff Leads Democrats at 26%
Updated
Updated · Fox News · Nov 14

Kalshi’s 2028 Election Markets Draw $500 Million as Ossoff Leads Democrats at 26%

1 articles · Updated · Fox News · Nov 14

Summary

  • $500 million has already been traded on Kalshi’s 2028 presidential markets, signaling unusually early interest just after the midterms.
  • Jon Ossoff leads Democratic nomination pricing at 26%, while J.D. Vance tops Republicans at 33% but only 12% to win the presidency, reflecting a wide nomination-to-general-election gap.
  • Gavin Newsom has fallen to about 12% from 37% a year ago, while Ron DeSantis has climbed from under 5% before the midterms to 17%, nearly matching Marco Rubio’s 18%.
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits near 13% for the Democratic nomination, and Kamala Harris has slipped into the single-digit tier alongside Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg and Mark Kelly.
  • The market remains highly fluid this far out, with traders treating current favorites as provisional as speeches, stumbles and campaign moves reshape the field.

Insights

Why do early prediction platforms often heavily favor emerging figures who remain largely unknown to the general public?
How might the CFTC's latest 2026 regulations reshape the rapidly expanding, billion-dollar landscape of event prediction markets?
Could the billions traded in early forecasting markets actually influence future outcomes rather than merely predict them?