Two Alaska House Races Stay 5 Votes Apart as 260-Plus Ballots Remain in Mat-Su

Q: Could the delayed arrival of international absentee ballots reverse the current ranked-choice trends in Alaska's closest legislative contests?

Yes. In Alaska’s closest legislative races, the delayed arrival of overseas and other outstanding absentee ballots could still reverse the current ranked-choice trends, especially where the margins are only five votes. That is most true in House District 30, where Doug Massie leads Kevin McCabe by five votes with about 160 ballots still uncounted, and in House District 29, where Garret Nelson leads Steve Menard by five votes with roughly 101 ballots still outstanding. In races that close, even a small shift in late ballots — or in how those voters ranked backup choices — could change the leader before the Nov. 18 final tabulation. The same caution applies, though somewhat less sharply, in House District 27 and House District 24. A 43-vote deficit for Elexie Moore and a 52-vote lead for Ken McCarty are still narrow enough that remaining ballots could matter. By contrast, races with wider cushions or fewer ballots left, such as House District 25, appear more stable. Ranked-choice voting adds another layer of uncertainty because late ballots do not just add raw totals; they can also alter elimination and transfer patterns if no one has a majority. Alaska’s Division of Elections has not yet completed its official ranked-choice count and will wait until the deadline for international absentee ballots on Nov. 18. So the current trends are meaningful, but not secure. In the tightest contests, overseas absentee ballots are more than enough to change the outcome.

3 articles · Updated · Alaska Beacon · Nov 12

Five Alaska House races remain too close to call, with Mat-Su districts 29 and 30 each separated by just five votes in preliminary ranked-choice tabulations released Wednesday.
More than 6,000 ballots were added statewide, but an estimated 160 votes remain uncounted in District 30 and 101 in District 29 before the official runoff count on Nov. 18.
Other tight contests include Wasilla's District 27, where Elexie Moore trails Stephen Wright by 43 votes, and Eagle River's District 24, where Ken McCarty leads Gina Wall by 52 with more than 1,100 ballots still uncounted.
In Homer's District 6, Sarah Vance leads Brent Johnson by 210 votes, yet nearly 2,400 ballots—more than 20% of the district total—have not been counted.
The unresolved races are unlikely to change control of the Alaska House, which is on track for a multipartisan coalition, but they will shape representation in the fast-growing Mat-Su and remain harder to gauge in rural districts with missing ranking data.