Richard Carapaz Wins Tour Stage 18 by 45 Seconds as EF Ends Wait

Q: After a stunning comeback win, can Richard Carapaz now challenge for the overall Tour de France podium?

No. Richard Carapaz’s Stage 18 win was one of the rides of this Tour, but an overall podium bid remains highly improbable. The key issue is time. After his victory, Carapaz moved up to 10th in the general classification, but he is still about 21 minutes behind race leader Tadej Pogacar and roughly 14 minutes 9 seconds behind third-placed Isaac del Toro. With only two brutal Alpine stages and the run-in to Paris left, that is an enormous deficit to erase against riders who are still marking each other closely for GC. His win also came from a breakaway, which matters. Breakaway victories can deliver big gains when the main contenders allow a rider freedom because he is no longer seen as a direct threat in the overall standings. That is very different from taking time in a head-to-head GC battle against Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel and Del Toro on consecutive decisive mountain days. What Carapaz’s performance does show is that his form is excellent. He gained significant time on Stage 18, climbed superbly, and looks capable of winning again or making a serious push in the mountains classification, where he is close to Pogacar. If UAE’s illness problems weaken Pogacar’s team, the race could become more chaotic, but that is more likely to affect the fight behind yellow than to bring Carapaz back from such a large gap. So Carapaz is now a major factor in the mountains and for more stage success, not a realistic podium favorite.

Q: With his team decimated by illness, is Tadej Pogacar's historic fifth Tour de France title now in jeopardy?

Yes — but only to a limited extent. Pogacar’s fifth Tour title is less secure than it looked a few days ago, yet his overall position remains very strong. The threat is not his own form so much as the condition of UAE Team Emirates-XRG around him. Brandon McNulty has abandoned with illness, Adam Yates has been weakened by a stomach bug since Stage 16, and Tim Wellens is also reportedly struggling. That matters because domestiques are crucial in the high mountains: they set tempo, protect the leader, fetch supplies and respond to attacks. With two brutal Alpine stages still to come, including back-to-back climbs involving Alpe d’Huez, a depleted support cast could leave Pogacar more exposed than at any point in this Tour. Even so, the numbers still favor him heavily. He leads Remco Evenepoel by 4 minutes 32 seconds and Isaac del Toro by 6 minutes 51 seconds with only three days left. That is a substantial cushion, and there is no evidence in the reporting that Pogacar himself is ill. He has also continued to hold the yellow jersey comfortably and remains in contention for the mountains classification. So the illness outbreak creates a real vulnerability, especially if rivals try to isolate him on the Queen Stage or if sickness spreads further. But barring a collapse, crash or Pogacar himself falling ill, his lead is large enough that the title is still his to lose rather than genuinely slipping from his grasp.

3 articles · Updated · Outside Magazine · Jul 23

Carapaz broke clear with 3.5km left and finished 45 seconds ahead of Mauro Schmid and Matteo Jorgenson on the 185.2km Alpine stage to Orcières-Merlette.
The EF Education-EasyPost rider came from the decisive breakaway and used two late surges after a six-man move formed inside the final 46km, dropping Valentin Paret-Peintre in the finale.
Tadej Pogačar stayed safe in the reduced GC group to keep yellow, but UAE Emirates-XRG lost Brandon McNulty to illness and saw Adam Yates finish nearly 30 minutes down before two key mountain stages.
Mads Pedersen widened his green-jersey lead to 32 points by winning the intermediate sprint, while Paret-Peintre moved to within one point of Pogačar in the mountains classification.