Updated

Updated · CyclingWeekly · Jul 23

Pogačar Targets Stage 18 Win on 185.3km Orcières-Merlette Finish After 2020 Runner-Up

Updated

Updated · CyclingWeekly · Jul 23

Pogačar Targets Stage 18 Win on 185.3km Orcières-Merlette Finish After 2020 Runner-Up

Q: Pogačar's team is collapsing from illness. Can he defend his yellow jersey alone on the upcoming Alpe d'Huez stages?

Yes — probably, but not comfortably. Pogačar’s yellow jersey defense now looks much more vulnerable because UAE Team Emirates-XRG has been hit by illness at exactly the wrong moment. Brandon McNulty has abandoned, Adam Yates has been weakened by stomach problems, Tim Wellens has admitted he is sick, and other teammates have shown signs of struggling. On Stage 18, UAE largely stopped trying to control the race, a clear sign the team is depleted. What keeps Pogačar in a strong position is the size of his lead and his own condition. He still holds 4:32 over Remco Evenepoel after Orcières-Merlette, and there were no time gaps among the main GC contenders on Stage 18. Reports from the team indicate Pogačar himself is healthy, and he remains the strongest all-around rider in the race. That matters more than ever with two decisive Alpine stages, including Alpe d’Huez, still to come. But defending “alone” is different from dominating. Without a full mountain train, Pogačar may not be able to dictate tempo or shut down repeated attacks as easily. Rivals now have a tactical opening: force UAE to chase, isolate him early, and test whether illness has reduced his last line of support to Isaac del Toro and perhaps a recovering Yates. So the most likely outcome is that Pogačar keeps yellow, because his cushion is large and his climbing level remains elite. The bigger question is not whether he can attack for stage wins, but whether he must ride conservatively just to protect the jersey.

Q: With the green jersey gap at just seven points, who will win the fierce sprint battle between Pedersen and Philipsen?

Mads Pedersen is now the clear favorite. The seven-point margin applied after Stage 17, when Philipsen’s win in Voiron cut Pedersen’s lead to 452-445. But on Stage 18, Pedersen took the intermediate sprint at Corps uncontested while Philipsen did not score, stretching the green jersey gap to 477-445 — a 32-point advantage. That matters because the race has now moved into the high mountains. The next stages are far less suited to Philipsen, who had already acknowledged that the coming Alpine days made it likely he would miss intermediate sprint chances. Pedersen, by contrast, has shown he can survive harder terrain better and keep collecting points even on difficult days. Philipsen still looks the sharper pure sprinter in a flat, direct finish — his Stage 17 victory proved that, and Alpecin’s lead-out remains a major weapon. If the race reaches Paris with the contest still alive, he is a real threat to win the final sprint. But the green jersey is not decided by one bunch finish alone; it is won through repeated scoring at stage finishes and intermediates. On the evidence available after Stage 18, Pedersen has both the points cushion and the more favorable profile for the terrain that remains before Paris. Philipsen can still turn it around, but he now needs a near-perfect finish to the race. Pedersen holds the upper hand.

3 articles · Updated · CyclingWeekly · Jul 23

Stage 18 sends Tadej Pogačar and his Tour de France rivals 185.3km to a category-one finish at Orcières-Merlette, where the race leader is chasing a win that eluded him in 2020.
Orcières-Merlette carries personal significance for Pogačar because Primož Roglič beat him there on his Tour debut, one of the few boxes still unchecked in this year's race.
The route starts in Voiron and hits the Côte d'Engins after 35km, then the Côte Monteyard and Côte des Terrasses before an intermediate sprint at Corps.
The final 55km trend uphill, with the last climb beginning about 7km from the line and steepening to roughly 7%, a setup that could favor Pogačar's late-stage punch.
Away from the overall battle, Jasper Philipsen and Mads Pedersen are expected to contest sprint points at Corps as the green jersey fight continues.