Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 24
Megacap Earnings and Fed's 35% Hike Odds Test Stocks Next Week
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 24

Megacap Earnings and Fed's 35% Hike Odds Test Stocks Next Week

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 24

Summary

  • Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple report next week as investors reassess whether heavy AI spending can keep supporting megacap valuations after Alphabet's results rattled the group.
  • More than 5% has been wiped from the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF this week, while semiconductor ETFs rose, underscoring a split between AI infrastructure winners and the cash-burning hyperscalers funding them.
  • The Fed announces its rate decision Wednesday, with futures implying a 35% chance of a quarter-point hike even though the broader consensus still expects no move until September.
  • Oil above $100 a barrel and rising inflation expectations have darkened sentiment, leaving the market vulnerable as August and September are typically weak months in midterm election years.
  • Still, S&P 500 companies are expected to deliver 38% second-quarter earnings growth, giving bulls a counterweight if megacap results and the Fed avoid fresh surprises.

Insights

Will the delayed inflation shock from recent tariffs force the Fed into a surprise rate hike before 2026 ends?
Could the Fed’s extended rate pause accidentally trigger the very economic slowdown policymakers are trying to avoid?
Why are prime-age workers suddenly vanishing from the labor force despite a supposedly stable economy?