Bellingcat Finds 1% of Polymarket Users Took 86% of $14 Billion World Cup Winnings
Updated
Updated · bellingcat · Jul 30
Bellingcat Finds 1% of Polymarket Users Took 86% of $14 Billion World Cup Winnings
1 articles · Updated · bellingcat · Jul 30
Summary
$14 billion in World Cup bets flowed through prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, with Bellingcat finding Polymarket’s gains were heavily concentrated among a tiny group of traders.
On Polymarket, 1% of accounts captured 86% of winnings, while the bottom 50% of winners shared just 0.1%; the median winning account made $21 and the median loser lost $32.
More than 12% of traders who bet on at least two games lost every wager, while the biggest Polymarket winner made over $13 million and the biggest loser dropped $11.6 million.
Polymarket handled about $10 billion of volume and Kalshi more than $4.3 billion across nearly 60,000 outcomes, from match results to novelty bets such as whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry.
The findings add to scrutiny of prediction markets over concentrated profits, possible algorithmic advantages, market manipulation risks and their role as a lightly regulated form of sports gambling.