Study Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Military Bets, Raising 97.2% Win-Rate Insider Trading Fears
Updated
Updated · Devdiscourse · Aug 20
Study Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Military Bets, Raising 97.2% Win-Rate Insider Trading Fears
3 articles · Updated · Devdiscourse · Aug 20
Summary
Anti-Corruption Data Collective said 152 wallets betting on military-action markets on Polymarket showed an average 97.2% win rate, a pattern it says points to possible insider trading.
The report ties the activity to U.S. military operations and warns that public prediction markets could leak actionable signals or be exploited by foreign adversaries despite Polymarket's monitoring controls.
A case involving a U.S. soldier accused of using classified information to bet on political events helped drive the research and sharpened concerns that sensitive information can be monetized through such markets.
Experts cited in the report said Polymarket's public ledger makes suspicious patterns easier to detect, but argued law enforcement alone is insufficient and called for tighter rules or bans on markets most vulnerable to insider trading.