Kalshi, Polymarket Open Cancer Drug Approval Bets as Prediction Markets Hit $24 Billion
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Kalshi, Polymarket Open Cancer Drug Approval Bets as Prediction Markets Hit $24 Billion
1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket now let users wager on whether the FDA will approve certain cancer drugs, extending prediction markets from politics and economics into medicine.
$24 billion in monthly global trading this year—up from $5 billion last September—helps explain the push, with prediction markets now exceeding the $14 billion spent monthly on legal sportsbook gambling in 2025.
Kalshi says the markets could give investors, drug developers, clinicians and patients public signals on approval odds; it is also considering contracts on clinical-trial success or failure.
Georgetown law professor Michele Goodwin warned bettors and observers could misread those prices as reliable medical guidance, even though the participants are not representative like a poll.