US June CPI Due July 11, Steering Odds of a 25-Basis-Point Fed Cut
Updated
Updated · bitcoinworld.co.in · Aug 8
US June CPI Due July 11, Steering Odds of a 25-Basis-Point Fed Cut
3 articles · Updated · bitcoinworld.co.in · Aug 8
Summary
July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June CPI, a report markets see as pivotal for the Fed’s July 28-29 rate decision.
3.1% headline inflation is expected to cool further, while core CPI is seen staying sticky near 3.4%—a mix that will test whether price pressures are easing enough for policymakers.
65% odds of a 25-basis-point cut are currently priced for the July meeting, but a hotter reading could quickly push the Fed toward keeping its 5.25%-5.50% policy rate higher for longer.
4.1% on the 10-year Treasury underscores the market sensitivity: a soft CPI could lift stocks and lower yields, while an upside surprise could hit equities and raise borrowing costs.
July 12 PPI, July 13 retail sales and jobless claims, and July 14 consumer sentiment will add context, but CPI remains the week’s main signal on inflation, rates, and household costs.