Kalshi Refers Insider-Trading Cases to Federal Authorities as Study Pegs Prediction-Market Profits at $143 Million
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Aug 9
Kalshi Refers Insider-Trading Cases to Federal Authorities as Study Pegs Prediction-Market Profits at $143 Million
2 articles · Updated · Fortune · Aug 9
Summary
Kalshi said it is now aggressively sending suspected insider-trading and market-manipulation cases to federal authorities, after building surveillance systems modeled on stock-market monitoring.
George Santos was flagged earlier this year over State of the Union-related trades; Kalshi said it referred evidence to the CFTC and is also pursuing its own enforcement case, with any recovered penalties potentially used to reimburse traders.
Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, has also been examined over whether advance knowledge of Trump remarks was used to trade contracts tied to words or topics in presidential speeches.
A legal study found prediction-market bets showed a nearly 70% win rate and estimated $143 million in profits, intensifying debate over whether politically connected traders are exploiting nonpublic information.
The scrutiny comes as the Trump family expands in prediction markets through Trump Media's planned TruthPredict and premium Truth API, while Donald Trump Jr. holds ties to both Kalshi and rival Polymarket.