Ukraine's Central Bank Hikes Rates 50bp to 15.5%, Boosts FX Intervention
Updated
Updated · ING Think · Aug 6
Ukraine's Central Bank Hikes Rates 50bp to 15.5%, Boosts FX Intervention
1 articles · Updated · ING Think · Aug 6
Summary
A 50-basis-point rate increase to 15.5% in late July, paired with larger FX interventions, helped stabilize USD/UAH near 44.81 after the dollar strengthened during July's Middle East flare-up.
The National Bank of Ukraine tightened policy in response to rising core inflation and a worsening inflation outlook for the rest of 2026.
Even with that support, the hryvnia outlook remains fragile because the war continues to weigh on Ukraine's macroeconomic environment.
The NBU has still raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast, citing expanded fiscal stimulus, underscoring the tension between stronger growth support and persistent currency and inflation pressure.