Prediction Markets Surge Toward $240 Billion as 16 States Push Curbs
Updated
Updated · Kiplinger's Personal Finance · Aug 11
Prediction Markets Surge Toward $240 Billion as 16 States Push Curbs
1 articles · Updated · Kiplinger's Personal Finance · Aug 11
Summary
$240 billion in trades is expected this year for U.S. prediction markets, with Bernstein projecting the sector could reach $1 trillion by 2030.
Trump-era legal changes and newer technology helped platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and DraftKings Predictions expand, while firms market event contracts as federally regulated derivatives rather than gambling.
16 states have introduced bills to regulate or ban the markets, reflecting confusion over whether users are investing or betting; 25% fund contracts from investment budgets.
More than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have lost at least $1,000, Bloomberg found, and researchers said about 7 in 10 accounts have lost money since 2022 despite many users believing they profit.
Manipulation fears have also grown after insider-trading cases, including an Army soldier accused of using classified information to win more than $400,000 on a Maduro-related Polymarket bet.