Updated

Updated · WESH 2 Orlando · Aug 13

Cristobal Weakens to Depression as 2 Atlantic Waves Show Up to 80% Development Odds

Updated

Updated · WESH 2 Orlando · Aug 13

Cristobal Weakens to Depression as 2 Atlantic Waves Show Up to 80% Development Odds

Q: Despite models showing no US impact, could Invest 92-L suddenly shift course and threaten the mainland?

A sudden U.S. mainland threat from Invest 92-L looks unlikely right now, but not impossible. The reason forecasters are not pointing it at the U.S. is that the most reliable guidance, including European model runs cited in local coverage, keeps the system away from the mainland. A strong Atlantic ridge is expected to steer it generally west to west-northwest toward the Caribbean, while increasing wind shear, dry Saharan air and dust should make strengthening harder as it nears the Lesser Antilles. That matters because track and strength are linked. If 92-L stays weak, it is more likely to keep moving west into or near the northeastern Caribbean, potentially bringing rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late this weekend into early next week. If it unexpectedly strengthens more than forecast, it could gain latitude and turn north sooner — but that scenario would more likely take it into the open Atlantic than toward the U.S. Forecasters also stress that this is still an invest, not a fully formed storm, so uncertainty remains higher than with a well-organized cyclone. The National Hurricane Center gives it high odds of development, around 80%, but those percentages refer to formation, not U.S. impact. So yes, tropical systems can shift as conditions change, and it is too early to rule out every long-range scenario. But based on the current steering pattern, hostile environment ahead, and model consensus, Invest 92-L is not considered a mainland U.S. threat at this time.

3 articles · Updated · WESH 2 Orlando · Aug 13

Cristobal was downgraded to a tropical depression Thursday, centered about 610 miles west of the Azores and moving northeast at 16 mph before expected dissipation.
Invest 92-L, midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, has become better organized and could form into a tropical depression within a day or so.
The National Hurricane Center gives 92-L an 80% chance of formation in both 48 hours and seven days, though stronger upper-level winds near the Lesser Antilles could curb further strengthening after Friday.
Invest 94-L, several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, remains less organized but could still develop late this week or this weekend, with 30% odds in 48 hours and 50% in seven days.