Polymarket traders now assign Anthropic a 62% chance of listing by the end of October, up 19 points, signaling expectations have shifted toward a late-October Nasdaq debut.
September timing bets have weakened sharply: odds for a 15 September listing fell to 2% from 35%, and the 30 September contract dropped 73 points to 13%.
By year-end, the market still prices an 83% chance of an IPO, while more than $1.4 million has traded across the contracts, including over $490,000 on the 30 September market.
Anthropic, which filed confidentially on 1 June, is pursuing a Goldman Sachs-, JPMorgan- and Morgan Stanley-led offering after a May private round valued it at about $965 billion.
Related contracts put an 85% chance on Anthropic reaching public markets before OpenAI and a 96% chance it closes its first trading day worth at least $600 billion.
Can Anthropic outpace OpenAI to the public market and secure the first trillion-dollar AI debut?
Will Anthropic's staggering compute costs derail its historic trillion-dollar IPO before the October window closes?
What hidden financial risks will Anthropic's landmark S-1 filing reveal behind its massive ten-gigawatt expansion?
Anthropic’s $1 Trillion Valuation: Claude Code, IPO Timelines, and the Enterprise AI Arms Race
Overview
Anthropic’s journey to its anticipated October 2026 IPO is marked by explosive financial growth, with its valuation soaring to $965 billion after major funding rounds and annualized revenue reaching $47 billion. This momentum is driven by a focus on stable, high-value enterprise clients and the rapid adoption of its agentic AI tools like Claude Code, which helped Anthropic surpass OpenAI in business adoption. However, the company faces operational strains from unexpected demand, regulatory scrutiny over cloud partnerships, and strict governance by the Long-Term Benefit Trust, which limits traditional shareholder influence. These factors together shape Anthropic’s unique position as it enters the public market.