Amazon Braces for Strongest El Niño in 150 Years, Facing Drought Into 2027
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 14
Amazon Braces for Strongest El Niño in 150 Years, Facing Drought Into 2027
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Aug 14
Summary
Brazil’s meteorological agency warned an unusually strong El Niño will delay the Amazon rainy season, raise temperatures, drain rivers and intensify fire risk as the forest enters its October-December dry-season peak.
Scientists say the event could be the strongest in 150 years and may hit at the worst moment, with tinder-dry undergrowth and low waterways leaving the rainforest highly vulnerable through at least March 2027.
The threat comes before the forest has recovered from the 2023-24 El Niño, which drove record-low rivers, unprecedented fires and mass dolphin and fish deaths; about one-third of the Amazon is already degraded.
Brazil has expanded satellite monitoring, enforcement and firefighting after burned area fell to its lowest since 1985 last year, while Indigenous communities are forming their own brigades and the government is stockpiling food for traditional lands.
A deeper Amazon drought would ripple beyond Brazil by weakening a major carbon sink and rainfall source for South American agriculture, as the UN already expects El Niño to push 49 million more people into acute hunger.
Despite record-low fires in 2025, why are experts terrified that the late 2026 El Niño could push the rainforest beyond recovery?
With FireSat launching this year, can advanced satellite tech and Indigenous knowledge combined save the Amazon from an irreversible ecological tipping point?
As river levels plummet, how will the looming shutdown of major Amazon shipping routes disrupt global trade and local food supplies?