Updated
Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 14
TD Securities Sees Canada July CPI at 2.9% as Core Inflation Holds Near 1.85%
Updated
Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 14

TD Securities Sees Canada July CPI at 2.9% as Core Inflation Holds Near 1.85%

3 articles · Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 14

Summary

  • Canada’s headline CPI likely rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8%, TD Securities said, with prices up 0.4% on the month.
  • Higher gasoline and food prices drove the pickup, while travel services partly offset it and ex-food-and-energy inflation was seen steady at 1.7%.
  • Core gauges CPI-trim and CPI-median are projected at 1.8% and 1.9%—about 1.85% overall—keeping underlying inflation pressures benign despite the headline rise.
  • Those core readings would sit below the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% Q3 projection even as headline CPI runs above its 2.5% forecast, supporting policymakers’ focus on core rather than oil-led moves.

Insights

As headline inflation ticks up, could sticky shelter costs and unpredictable energy prices derail Canada's stable economic outlook?
Do temporary global events like the World Cup mask deeper economic vulnerabilities in Canada's underlying inflation metrics?