Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Aug 16
S&P 500 Bull Market Enters 47th Month as Data Point to 20 More Months
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Aug 16

S&P 500 Bull Market Enters 47th Month as Data Point to 20 More Months

3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Aug 16

Summary

  • 47 months into the S&P 500 bull market, historical data suggest the run may still have room: the average post-World War II bull market lasts 5.6 years, implying more than 20 months left if this cycle is merely typical.
  • 129% cumulative returns since the October 2022 low also trail the 167% average bull-market gain, leaving scope for roughly another 16.5% rise before matching past norms.
  • 57% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index so far this year—the highest share in a decade—signaling the rally is broadening beyond the megacap AI names that led its first years.
  • 16.5% gains for the equal-weight S&P 500 versus 14% for the cap-weighted index reinforce that smaller constituents are now contributing more, reducing reliance on the top 10 stocks that still make up 39% of the benchmark.

Insights

If equal-weight indices are now outperforming, have the once-dominant AI giants finally exhausted their four-year momentum?
With historical data suggesting the bull market has room to run, could recent weakening in breadth indicators signal a hidden trap?
As capital rotates away from megacap tech, is this broadening market rally actually masking an impending economic peak?