Markets Brace for Fed Minutes and Japan GDP as September Hike Odds Fall to 27%
Updated
Updated · longbridge.com · Aug 16
Markets Brace for Fed Minutes and Japan GDP as September Hike Odds Fall to 27%
3 articles · Updated · longbridge.com · Aug 16
Summary
Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the week’s main event, with investors looking for clues on whether officials still lean toward a September rate increase after weaker U.S. payrolls and softer inflation.
LSEG data shows money markets now price only a 27% chance of a 25-basis-point hike next month, even though the Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in July on a 9-3 vote.
Friday’s flash PMIs across the U.S., euro zone and UK will test how much higher oil and gas prices — tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff — are weighing on growth and price pressures.
Japan adds another policy signal: Monday’s preliminary Q2 GDP is expected at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while Friday CPI is seen returning to the BOJ’s 2% target as import costs keep pressure on prices.
China’s July activity data and Thursday’s LPR decision, alongside ECB minutes and retail sales from Europe and the U.S., round out a week centered on global demand and the next monetary-policy moves.