Polymarket Sees 62% Odds of Higher S&P 500 Open as Yields Stay Near 4.70%
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Polymarket Sees 62% Odds of Higher S&P 500 Open as Yields Stay Near 4.70%
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Summary
Polymarket's Aug. 17 S&P 500 contract implied a 62% chance the index would open higher, signaling a modestly bullish view before Monday's session.
Futures were mixed rather than decisively risk-on: S&P 500 futures rose 0.11% and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.34%, while Dow futures slipped 0.09%.
This cautious optimism comes as investors brace for a heavy retail earnings week led by Home Depot, Target, TJX and Walmart, while September Fed hike odds have fallen to about 30%.
Bond yields and geopolitics are still complicating the outlook, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.70%, the 30-year auction yielding 5.216%, and Brent crude at $88.53 after renewed Middle East tensions.