Trump Sits at 38.1% Approval as Democrats Hold 6.8-Point Generic Ballot Lead
Updated
Updated · New York Magazine · Aug 17
Trump Sits at 38.1% Approval as Democrats Hold 6.8-Point Generic Ballot Lead
3 articles · Updated · New York Magazine · Aug 17
Summary
38.1% approval and 58% disapproval in Silver Bulletin’s average leave Trump near his second-term lows just 78 days before the 2026 midterms, with RealClearPolitics showing a similarly weak 39.2%-58.4% split.
90% of self-identified MAGA supporters approve of Trump, but his coalition thins sharply beyond that base: independents split 18%-71% in Economist-YouGov, and moderates disapprove 70%-25%.
Issue ratings are also underwater, with Silver Bulletin showing net approval at -29% on the economy, -42.7% on inflation and -19.6% on the Iran war; Reuters-Ipsos put his Iran-war handling at -32%.
6.8 points is the Democratic lead in both Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot averages, a margin that could matter because Democrats need to flip only three House seats to retake the chamber.
Republicans still enter the midterms with structural advantages in Senate and House maps, gerrymandered districts, fundraising strength and a weakened Democratic brand, but presidential approval has historically been the dominant midterm driver.