El Niño Seen Having 69% Chance to Become Strongest Since 1950, Lifting 2027 Heat Risk
Updated
Updated · Fox Weather · Aug 17
El Niño Seen Having 69% Chance to Become Strongest Since 1950, Lifting 2027 Heat Risk
3 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · Aug 17
Summary
Forecast models now give El Niño a 69% chance of becoming the strongest event since records began in 1950, with forecasters saying its peak this fall could surpass 2015 and 1997.
July ocean temperatures in the key equatorial Pacific zone ran 1.4°C above average, and consensus forecasts put anomalies at 3.0°C to 3.4°C by November and December—well into Super El Niño territory.
That strengthening pattern is already reshaping storm expectations: Colorado State University cut its Atlantic hurricane outlook again, while El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic cyclones and boosts Pacific activity.
Florida and the U.S. South could face an unusually wet winter and higher severe-weather risk, while parts of Europe may see isolated downpours as the event disrupts weather patterns globally.
2027 could bring global temperatures far above normal, extending the impact of a weather event forecasters describe as globally significant and still intensifying.