NOAA Sees 70% Chance of Record El Niño, Tilting US Winter Warmer and Wetter
Updated
Updated · CNN · Aug 20
NOAA Sees 70% Chance of Record El Niño, Tilting US Winter Warmer and Wetter
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Aug 20
Summary
NOAA’s December-to-February outlook shows above-average temperatures across the northern tier and wetter-than-normal conditions from Southern California through the southern states to the East Coast.
A rapidly strengthening El Niño is forecast to reach Super El Niño status by October and has a nearly 70% chance of becoming the strongest on record by year-end.
That setup typically pushes the jet stream south, favoring warmer, drier conditions in the North and cooler, stormier weather in the South, with less average snow in the Northeast.
Florida faces elevated winter severe-thunderstorm risk during El Niño, while other Gulf Coast areas are usually less active than normal.
NOAA said a record-strong El Niño raises the odds of these patterns rather than guaranteeing extreme outcomes, with long-term warming also reducing snowfall across much of the US.