California Braces for 2-5 Inches More Monthly Winter Rain as Super El Niño Strengthens
Updated
Updated · The Seattle Times · Aug 18
California Braces for 2-5 Inches More Monthly Winter Rain as Super El Niño Strengthens
3 articles · Updated · The Seattle Times · Aug 18
Summary
NOAA’s CFSv2 and four other climate models point to a wetter-than-normal California winter, with most areas projected to get 2 to 5 extra inches of rain in both December and January.
A strengthening Super El Niño is pulling the jet stream and atmospheric rivers south while warmer Pacific waters add moisture; model averages show a 40% to 65% statewide precipitation boost.
Flood risk could rise if that added water arrives in concentrated atmospheric river bursts, potentially triggering localized flooding and mudslides that strain water infrastructure.
Higher elevations in Northern California and the Sierra are still favored for more snow, but warmer conditions are expected to lift the rain-snow line and reduce accumulation on lower slopes.
The Niño 3.4 anomaly has climbed from about 1.7°C last month to above 2.7°C in mid-August, with forecasts near 4°C by November—potentially surpassing the 2015 record peak of 2.78°C.