Alpaca can now broker and clear prediction-market and event-contract trades after its derivatives unit registered as a futures commission merchant and joined the National Futures Association.
That approval expands Alpaca’s regulated brokerage stack for clients such as brokers, developers and financial firms, letting them add event contracts through Alpaca’s existing API-driven infrastructure.
Without a Designated Contract Market license, Alpaca still cannot list markets itself and must route access through venues such as Kalshi or CME Group.
$50.6 billion in combined July notional volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US underscores why Alpaca is entering the sector; prediction operators also handled 27% of sports betting and trading volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Will Alpaca's in-house clearing strategy give it the edge, or will fragmented state gambling laws crush its prediction market ambitions?
With the CFTC's recent 2026 crackdown on event contracts, which real-world events will actually survive to be traded on retail brokerage apps?
As Wall Street tightens insider trading rules, how will API-driven prediction markets stop corporate employees from profiting off confidential company secrets?