Updated
Updated · LPL Financial · Aug 17
Developed Markets Lead Global Growth as July PMI Hits 53.3 and China Cools to 50.8
Updated
Updated · LPL Financial · Aug 17

Developed Markets Lead Global Growth as July PMI Hits 53.3 and China Cools to 50.8

2 articles · Updated · LPL Financial · Aug 17

Summary

  • Global growth leadership has shifted back to developed economies, with developed-market composite PMI rising to 53.3 in July from 50.5 in March while the global reading improved to 52.6.
  • The U.S. drove much of that rebound—its PMI jumped to 54.5 from 50.3—and the eurozone returned to expansion at 52.0, with Germany posting its first expansionary reading in months.
  • Emerging markets lost momentum over the same period: China slowed to 50.8 from 55.4 in February, Brazil fell back below 50.0, and Russia stayed in contraction, though India remained relatively strong at 54.3.
  • LPL said softer U.S. July payroll growth of 30,000 and easing inflation have shifted markets from expecting more Fed hikes to anticipating a pause at 3.50%–3.75%, helping lift the S&P 500 to new highs.
  • The report said narrowing global rate gaps could reduce currency-driven volatility and refocus investors on fundamentals, while keeping foreign demand for Treasuries—led by Japan's $1.1 trillion holdings—critical to U.S. borrowing costs.

Insights

Is global growth really stabilizing, or are U.S. strength and AI spending just masking a deeper slowdown in emerging markets and trade?
Could a stronger yen and narrowing rate gaps quietly trigger the next shock for carry trades, Treasuries, and AI-driven equities?
If the Fed stays on hold and foreign Treasury demand wavers, what keeps long-term U.S. yields from climbing even higher?