Updated
Updated · birrmetrics.com · Aug 19
National Bank of Ethiopia Offers $500 Million FX Auction as Demand Nears 3.8 Times Supply
Updated
Updated · birrmetrics.com · Aug 19

National Bank of Ethiopia Offers $500 Million FX Auction as Demand Nears 3.8 Times Supply

1 articles · Updated · birrmetrics.com · Aug 19

Summary

  • $500 million will be sold in a special foreign-exchange auction on Thursday, matching the entire first-quarter FX amount the National Bank of Ethiopia had originally planned to release across four regular sales.
  • The move follows an August 12 auction that offered $125 million against $470.17 million in bids from 28 banks, with only nine banks receiving allocations at a weighted average rate of 161.7994 birr per dollar.
  • NBE said the special sale is for monetary-policy purposes, but has not clarified whether it replaces the remaining August 26, September 9 and September 23 regular auctions or comes on top of them.
  • Demand has repeatedly outstripped supply since the auction program began in August 2024; across 25 auctions, only one previous sale left part of the central bank's offer unallocated.
  • The auction rate has also been rising, climbing from 157 birr per dollar on June 24 to 161.7994 on August 12, making Thursday's sale a fresh test of how much unmet FX demand the banking system can absorb.

Insights

With $2.2 billion already spent defending the birr, can Ethiopia's massive $500M dollar injection finally crush the black market premium?
As demand for hard currency wildly fluctuates, does this massive one-off dollar sale signal panic or a masterstroke in market liberalization?