Buffett Warns S&P 500 Looks Expensive at 238% Buffett Indicator as Gambling Mood Spreads
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 20
Buffett Warns S&P 500 Looks Expensive at 238% Buffett Indicator as Gambling Mood Spreads
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 20
Summary
Buffett said the market looks dangerously pricey, with the Buffett indicator at a record 238% and investors in an unprecedented “gambling mood.”
The warning comes as the S&P 500 has surged more than 102% since early 2023, brushing off an inverted yield curve, a banking crisis, elevated inflation and the Iran war.
Valuation gauges beyond Buffett’s preferred measure also flash red: the Shiller CAPE ratio is near levels seen just before the 2000 dot-com crash.
AI enthusiasm is adding to bubble comparisons, with the Magnificent Seven expected to spend well over $1 trillion on capital expenditures across 2025 and 2026.
Buffett’s takeaway is caution rather than retreat—despite Berkshire’s cash pile nearing $400 billion before it started deploying capital again in the second quarter.