U.S. August Payrolls Seen Rebounding 15,000 as Unemployment Rises to 4.2%
Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Aug 20
U.S. August Payrolls Seen Rebounding 15,000 as Unemployment Rises to 4.2%
3 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Aug 20
Summary
15,000 jobs are forecast to be added in August, a modest rebound after July’s 23,000 payroll drop, with analysts treating it as a correction from recent weakness rather than a stronger hiring trend.
4.2% unemployment is expected to edge up from July as a 275,000 labor-force rebound lifts participation to 61.5%, reversing part of the sharp 720,000 and 264,000 declines seen in June and July.
65,000 private payroll gains outside leisure and hospitality should do most of the work, while leisure may recover from two straight declines, manufacturing is seen up 10,000, and government payrolls are expected to be flat.
2.9% year-over-year wage growth would mark the slowest pace since May 2021 if average hourly earnings rise 0.2%, reinforcing the view that the labor market is not tightening despite recent dips in unemployment.