NOAA Sees 69% Chance 2026 El Niño Breaks Post-1950 Strength Records
Updated
Updated · CBS New York · Aug 20
NOAA Sees 69% Chance 2026 El Niño Breaks Post-1950 Strength Records
3 articles · Updated · CBS New York · Aug 20
Summary
More than 90% odds now favor a very strong El Niño in fall and winter 2026-27, and NOAA says the October-December 2026 period has a 69% chance of surpassing any event recorded since 1950.
Warmer-than-normal equatorial Pacific waters and a reversal in trade winds are driving the outlook; NOAA says El Niño typically peaks in Northern Hemisphere winter and often brings wetter conditions to the southern United States.
Southern California officials are already preparing for heavier rain, flooding, mudslides and debris flows, especially near burn scars, with Los Angeles County clearing sediment, readying basins and planning a public outreach campaign for September.
Past strong El Niño years show the potential scale: Southern California averaged 14.25 inches of rain annually, but received 30.57 inches in 1997-98 and 33.19 inches in 1982-83.
Impacts are not guaranteed locally—California's 2015-16 strong El Niño underdelivered on rain—but NOAA says ENSO remains one of the world's most influential climate drivers, with effects extending far beyond the U.S.