Four- to six-month delays in fertilizer shipments after any Strait of Hormuz reopening could lift fall preplant costs and alter US planting choices for next year’s crop, USDA chief economist Justin Benavidez said.
About one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade moves through the strait, and disruptions there have also kept fuel costs elevated, tightening margins already squeezed by rising input prices.
Since around 2015, US producers have faced a widening gap between commodity prices and production expenses as more efficient global rivals expanded supply, while trade-policy volatility and a strong dollar hurt export competitiveness.
Corn and soybeans still have support from strong Mexican demand and record renewable fuel mandates, while historically low 2026 wheat production is propping up prices even as it weakens US export competitiveness.
Benavidez said federal aid can cushion shocks but not restore profitability long term, arguing producers need new markets, new uses and disciplined marketing rather than relying on geopolitical disruptions.
With 2026 fertilizer costs squeezed by Gulf disruptions, can US farmers innovate fast enough to survive a permanent shift in global agriculture?
As overseas competitors seize market share, will surging Mexican demand and record 2026 biofuel mandates truly save American farms from crushing margin pressures?