Dallas Fed Sees Texas Adding 241,300 Jobs in 2026 as Growth Holds at 1.7%
Updated
Updated · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · Aug 21
Dallas Fed Sees Texas Adding 241,300 Jobs in 2026 as Growth Holds at 1.7%
1 articles · Updated · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · Aug 21
Summary
241,300 jobs are projected to be added in Texas in 2026, lifting total employment to 14.6 million by December, according to the Dallas Fed’s latest forecast.
The 1.7% growth estimate comes from four models using projected U.S. GDP, oil futures, and Texas and U.S. leading indexes; the forecast carries an 80% confidence band of 1.3% to 2.1%.
July payrolls slipped by 1,480 jobs on an annualized 0.1% decline, pulling year-to-date job growth down to 1.6%, below Texas’ long-run 2% average.
Construction, manufacturing and financial activities led July losses, while professional and business services posted the strongest gains, followed by education and health services and leisure and hospitality.
The Texas Leading Index was flat in the three months through July, with weaker real oil prices and higher unemployment claims offset by stronger help-wanted ads, stock prices and well permits.
With recent unexpected job losses, could volatile oil prices and labor shortages secretly derail Texas's projected 1.7% employment growth by December 2026?
How are massive data center buildouts and rising tech productivity quietly reshaping the future of the Texas labor market despite traditional sector declines?