NHC Tracks 20% Dolly Threat Near Azores as Low Drifts Toward Portugal

Q: Could the seemingly harmless tropical wave off Africa become the next major hurricane to threaten the coast?

Yes, it could eventually become a hurricane, but there is no evidence yet that it is on track to become a major storm threatening the U.S. coast. The National Hurricane Center says the wave expected to move off Africa on Monday has the best development odds of the three Atlantic disturbances, with a 40% chance of forming within seven days and near 0% in the next 48 hours. That means forecasters see some potential for a tropical depression by the middle or latter part of next week, but the system is still in a very early, uncertain stage. Tropical waves coming off Africa are common seeds for Cape Verde hurricanes, some of which have later become powerful Atlantic storms. But whether this one survives and strengthens will depend on conditions it has not yet faced, including wind shear, dry Saharan air and the steering pattern over the open Atlantic. Multiple reports note those broader Atlantic conditions remain only marginally favorable, with El Niño-linked wind shear still a limiting factor this season. Just as important, there is no immediate threat signal. The system is forecast for now to move westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, far from land. Track and intensity forecasts beyond several days are especially unreliable for a disturbance that has not even formed a closed circulation yet. So the prudent answer is: watch it, but do not overstate it. It is a legitimate early-stage system to monitor, not a current coastal threat.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo! Voices · Aug 22

A low-pressure system north-northeast of the Azores could gain subtropical or tropical traits Saturday or early Sunday, potentially becoming Atlantic storm Dolly.
The National Hurricane Center said the system is moving east-southeast at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain, making it an unusual far-northeast Atlantic setup.
The disturbance carries a 20% seven-day development chance, with forecasters expecting its window for organization to close by Sunday.
Only three Atlantic tropical storms have formed so far in 2026—Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal—as El Niño wind shear and dry Saharan air have suppressed broader activity.
Portugal and the Azores are occasionally hit by tropical or post-tropical systems; NOAA records 47 storms within 60 miles since the 1950s, though none made hurricane landfall on mainland Portugal.