Tropical Storm Fay Nears 65 Mph, Set to Become Atlantic's First 2026 Hurricane

Q: Why is Tropical Storm Fay expected to rapidly lose its hurricane status almost as soon as it gains it?

Tropical Storm Fay is expected to lose hurricane status almost as soon as it gains it because the environment around it is forecast to turn hostile very quickly. Forecasters say Fay has only a short window for strengthening while it remains over open water in relatively moist air, with some added support from an approaching upper-level trough. That setup could briefly push its winds above the 74 mph threshold needed to be classified as a hurricane. But that opportunity is expected to close by Monday. The National Hurricane Center says increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should begin weakening the storm soon after peak intensity. Wind shear can tilt and disrupt a storm’s core, while dry air chokes off the deep thunderstorms that hurricanes need to maintain strength. Fay’s compact size also matters. It is a small storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 40 to 45 nautical miles from its center. Small tropical cyclones can intensify quickly, but they can also weaken quickly when conditions worsen because they are more vulnerable to shear and dry air. That is why forecasters expect any hurricane phase to be brief. Fay is then projected to weaken rapidly, become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday, and dissipate later in the week while staying far out at sea.

3 articles · Updated · WFTV Orlando · Sep 20

National Hurricane Center forecasters said Fay could reach hurricane strength later Sunday night or early Monday after its 5 p.m. advisory put maximum sustained winds at 65 mph.
Fay formed early Sunday from Tropical Depression Six and is expected to strengthen only briefly, making it a likely short-lived first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season.
The storm is moving north-northeast and should bend southwestward Monday while staying over the open Atlantic, with elevated surf possible near the Azores.
No other major tropical activity is expected in the next 7 days, though forecasters are watching two Atlantic areas next week and see fading odds for late-month Gulf development.