80% of Economists Urge Warsh to Explain Economy as 77% Doubt Treasury Yield Push
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 24
80% of Economists Urge Warsh to Explain Economy as 77% Doubt Treasury Yield Push
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 24
Summary
Eighty percent of economists in CNBC's Jackson Hole survey want Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to give more insight into his economic views in Friday's keynote, even as only 48% want explicit rate guidance.
Long-term yields and uncertainty over inflation are driving that demand after Warsh largely withheld his outlook since taking office; 45% expect him to keep offering no rate guidance, while 32% see a somewhat hawkish tone.
Seventy-seven percent say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's surprise long-dated bond purchases will fail to lower yields, with the 10-year Treasury seen staying around 4.60%-4.70% through end-2027.
Rate expectations remain unusually split: 53% of respondents expect hikes over the next year, 30% see cuts, and futures imply a 70% chance of at least one hike by December.
That divide extends inside the Fed after July's 9-3 hold vote, though 65% still back Warsh's broader goal of less Fed talk and more reliance on market signals.