BOK Seen Lifting 2026 Growth Forecast Above 3% as Chip Exports Stay Strong
Updated
Updated · 코리아타임스 · Aug 23
BOK Seen Lifting 2026 Growth Forecast Above 3% as Chip Exports Stay Strong
3 articles · Updated · 코리아타임스 · Aug 23
Summary
Six analysts surveyed by Yonhap expect the Bank of Korea to raise its 2026 growth outlook from 2.6% to roughly 3.1%-3.4%, with Nomura at the high end.
Semiconductor exports, stronger domestic demand and higher government spending funded by tax revenue are driving the upgrade, with several economists saying growth around 3.2% is now likely.
Most respondents also expect the BOK to sharply raise its current-account surplus forecast from May's $250 billion after first-half 2026 already exceeded 2025's record annual $191 billion.
Inflation is seen holding at the BOK's 2.7% estimate because higher oil prices and a weak won keep price pressures elevated even as growth improves.
Analysts broadly expect the semiconductor upcycle to extend beyond 2027 on AI-driven supply shortages, though some warn the boom could peak by late 2026 or early 2027.