Prediction Markets See 56% Odds 10-Year Yield Ends 2026 at 4.75% Despite Treasury Moves
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 24
Prediction Markets See 56% Odds 10-Year Yield Ends 2026 at 4.75% Despite Treasury Moves
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 24
Summary
Kalshi traders put a 56% chance on the 10-year Treasury yield ending 2026 at or above 4.75%, with only 27% odds it finishes above 5%, signaling limited faith in Treasury efforts to push rates down.
At about 4.70% on Monday, the 10-year yield briefly eased after reports that Treasury may tap its $1 trillion General Account to support larger debt buybacks, but traders are betting any drop will fade.
That skepticism follows last week's announcement that Treasury would double U.S. debt buybacks to stabilize the bond market; yields fell initially, then climbed again.
Global bond selling tied to inflation worries and the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict, along with U.S. debt topping $40 trillion last week, has kept upward pressure on yields.
Polymarket similarly shows roughly two-in-three odds the 10-year yield will touch 4.8% sometime in 2026, even though it has not breached that level during the recent sell-off.