US Murder Rate Falls to 4.1 per 100,000, Matching 70-Year Low in 2025

1 articles · Updated · Vox.com · Aug 22

The FBI estimated the US murder rate at 4.1 per 100,000 in 2025, tying 1955 and 1956 for the lowest level recorded and marking a sharp break from persistent public fears that crime is worsening.
Violent crime overall fell 9.7% in 2025—the biggest one-year drop since 1936—but analysts say no single national explanation fits, with theories from post-pandemic normalization to prevention spending all leaving gaps.
Baltimore offers one of the clearest local cases: homicides fell to 133 in 2025, the fewest since 1977, after the city combined focused deterrence, street outreach and stronger gun-crime enforcement.
Researchers found shootings in Baltimore's Western District ran about 30% below comparable neighborhoods after the Group Violence Reduction Strategy began there in 2022, while the city also raised homicide clearance to 60% by mid-2026.
The broader lesson is promising but unsettled: some anti-violence programs show mixed results elsewhere, and expiring federal pandemic aid could test whether the national decline can last.