$1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years is what Anthropic would need to support a $2 trillion valuation, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran calculated under relatively generous assumptions.
Those assumptions include a 30% after-tax operating margin, a 10% cost of capital and a decade to maturity; if the timeline stretches to 15 years, the required revenue rises toward $2 trillion.
Anthropic's July revenue run rate topped $65 billion, up from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and the company reportedly projects $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue.
Even if it hits that 2028 target, Damodaran says Anthropic would still need roughly 25% annual growth for another eight years to reach the scale implied by the valuation.
Damodaran estimates today's AI products-and-services market at about $250 billion, arguing a multitrillion-dollar outcome likely requires AI to replace workers broadly—a shift that could trigger job losses, regulation and slower adoption.